Part One compared the reduction in group radius from better rifle precision with the reduction in wind displacement from another 150 fps. Part Two looks at how those differences affect the modeled probability of a hit inside a 10-inch circular vital zone.
How much do accuracy and velocity change the probability of a hit as distance and wind-call error increase?
For this comparison, we used the same 7 PRC load and hit-probability model:
- Berger 180-grain Hybrid Target
- G7 BC: .349
- 10-inch circular vital zone
- 600 and 800 yards
- 0.50, 0.75, and 1.00 MOA rifle precision
- 1, 2, and 3 mph full-value wind-call errors
- Muzzle velocities of 2,975 fps and 2,825 fps
Rifle dispersion is modeled as a circular statistical distribution, treating the stated group diameter as an approximate 95% circle diameter. Wind-call error shifts the center of that distribution horizontally.
The model isolates rifle precision and wind-call error. It does not include shooter wobble, range error, velocity variation, target movement, positional instability, or other field variables.
Modeled Hit Probability at 600 and 800 Yards
| Distance | Velocity | Precision | 1 mph error | 2 mph error | 3 mph error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 600 yd | 2,975 fps | 0.50 MOA | 100.0% | 99.1% | 39.5% |
| 600 yd | 2,825 fps | 0.50 MOA | 100.0% | 94.6% | 7.6% |
| 600 yd | 2,975 fps | 0.75 MOA | 99.9% | 93.6% | 40.9% |
| 600 yd | 2,825 fps | 0.75 MOA | 99.9% | 84.4% | 15.8% |
| 600 yd | 2,975 fps | 1.00 MOA | 99.1% | 85.9% | 40.9% |
| 600 yd | 2,825 fps | 1.00 MOA | 98.5% | 75.6% | 21.0% |
| 800 yd | 2,975 fps | 0.50 MOA | 97.9% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| 800 yd | 2,825 fps | 0.50 MOA | 91.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 800 yd | 2,975 fps | 0.75 MOA | 89.8% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
| 800 yd | 2,825 fps | 0.75 MOA | 79.5% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| 800 yd | 2,975 fps | 1.00 MOA | 80.4% | 17.7% | 0.3% |
| 800 yd | 2,825 fps | 1.00 MOA | 70.1% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
What This Means at 600 Yards
At 600 yards, rifle precision remains very important. With a 1- or 2-mph wind-call error, improving rifle accuracy can be more valuable than gaining 150 fps. As the wind error increases, however, the faster load becomes progressively more valuable.
What Changes at 800 Yards
At 800 yards, the balance changes rapidly. With a 2-mph wind-call error, a 0.75-MOA rifle at 2,975 fps models at 12.6% hit probability, while the same 0.75-MOA rifle at 2,825 fps drops to 2.0%.
The Practical Takeaway
Tighter rifle precision is extremely valuable with a good wind call. As distance and wind uncertainty increase, velocity becomes increasingly important because it reduces how far a wind-call error moves the center of the group.
Accuracy determines how tightly the rifle distributes shots. Velocity reduces how far a wind-call error displaces them.
These percentages are modeled comparisons, not guarantees of field hit probability.
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